On Anticipation and Ambition

For a segment of America, and possibly the world, this is the greatest time of the year. The NFL Draft has finally arrived, and with its prime-time, 3-day splendor all the speculation about what a team needs to do to improve finally ends. Months of mock-drafts and so-called expert analysis is replaced by post pick analysis and all the second-guessing that you would expect from jaded ex-players. But at its core the draft represents an opportunity for an organization to evaluate their strengths and address as many of their weaknesses as possible. With one move a franchise can be righted by selecting a player like Peyton Manning, or they can continue to stumble with the likes of someone like Ryan Leaf. Decisions like these can impact a team for upwards of five years, you do not want to miss. And so, it is with that evaluating and rebuilding mentality that I intend to look at the state of the major players in the video game industry. Who will be the #1 pick?

Eager-reader, you’re on the clock.

First on the big board is Microsoft. As will be the case with Sony, a lot of the potential with Microsoft and the Xbox 360 is unknown. There is no ceiling of achievement set with Natal scheduled to be released this fall. Project Natal could revolutionize how we use the Xbox 360 and introduce a wealth of software to users that we could never imagine was possible five years ago. However, as of this post’s publish date there is still more speculation than certainty surrounding Project Natal. A favorable showing at E3 2010 is absolutely essential if Natal is going to have any chance at getting a favorable reception at launch. If Natal fails to impress, not even Kevin Butler can save Milo.

However Natal is not the only major push being made my Microsoft. With the recent update (read “concession”) to allow USB support for memory devices along with the introduction of a 250GB hard drive, it’s clear that the Xbox 360 will continue to be a source for digital content until its last breath. Full titles continue to be released, most recently Halo 3 and any game you purchase at retail can be installed to the Xbox 360′s hard drive assuming there is enough room. I think it is only a matter of time before a high-profile game will be released in stores as well as through Microsoft’s digital distribution platform. Every aspect of gaming is moving to the cloud, it’s only a matter of time before we have a Steam-like approach to games distribution for our consoles. Of course this will push the necessity for improved broadband access across the nation and the issue of ownership and DRM will be sharply analyzed but these are the types of scenarios we will have to be aware of as Microsoft tackles the coming years.

Which brings me to Nintendo. I think I’ve run out of clever metaphors for Nintendo. There’s no way to approach their business plan because whatever I think simply does not matter to them. Sure, there are still whispers of developers that have not abandoned the more enthusiastic gamer, but will they ever grow beyond that? Sure, Super Mario Galaxy 2 will be fantastic, but is one game this year enough to justify my owning a Wii? Among the many decisions made by Nintendo, one of them was to get the hardware out to as many consumers as possible. Wii Motion Plus, the Wii Balance Board, maybe even the Vitality Sensor sometime soon. All of these peripherals are great, but we are still lacking the software that takes these accessories and leverages them into a gaming experience that is memorable and unique. Now is the time for the software to shine for Nintendo. The install base is still growing, but there must be more out there beyond Wii Sports and Wii Fit Plus. There must be more out there than the traditional first-party mascots. There must be more.

Before you ask, no, I did not forget about the almighty Personal Computer. I accept that PC gaming is a foreign concept to me. I don’t twitch, while I can type without looking at the keys I still have to look down to find specific characters if prompted by the screen. And don’t get me started on hot-keys. But I get it, it’s not for me but that doesn’t mean that PC gamers aren’t people too. As far as the state of computer gaming is concerned, Steam potentially coming to Mac is a really, really big deal. Hopefully this untapped market will represent a notable boost in support for computer gaming as an industry. Of course for the tech junkies, 3D gaming will have a huge opportunity to shine. Gamers with a high-end PC already have a financial and intellectual investment in the latest and greatest technology. I don’t see any reason for 3D to not be accepted by this same crowd. I’d continue on about games like StarCraft 2 and Diablo 3, but that would exhaust my so-called expertise on this one, so let’s just move on.

Which brings me to Sony. There’s a lot of things to like about the state of the PlayStation 3, so let’s start with what we know – it plays Blu-ray movies, quite well. Wireless and bluetooth support come standard with every unit as well as the ability to easily upgrade the hard drive, offering the consumer options instead of limitations. We have raised our expectations about what this machine can do each when the next AAA title hits store shelves. Since its launch, the PlayStation 3 has continued to improve and evolve as a gaming platform and centralized media machine and there is no telling where the ceiling of potential is for Sony. Games continue to improve, firmware updates, while tedious, still increase the capability of the PlayStation 3. This week Sony announced a deal with Major League Baseball to stream out of market games to users through MLB.TV. These are the types of changes we can look forward to seeing in the future. And while these types of improvements may not be exclusive to one console, (see: Netflix), Sony is in the best position to capitalize on the digital market.

One phrase I simultaneously loathe yet love to hear on draft day is “tremendous upside potential”. Honestly I have no idea what that really means, but I interpret as a multi-syllabic way of saying “we’ll see”. At this point in the gaming industry’s life, the iPad is the epitome of tremendous upside potential. No, my position on the iPad has not changed, I still do not want, nor do I need one. But I can acknowledge the potential. I risk speaking without first-hand knowledge about the capabilities of the iPad, so I recommend you listen to Episode 132 of UncleGamer Radio for out-of-the-box impressions and a hefty dose of kool-aid regarding the possible future of this device. It seems like there’s a lot to like, and as I said, tremendous upside potential for future iterations.

We’ve seen what this year has already brought us – week after week of stand-out releases until our bank accounts screamed for mercy. It feels like this is the first year that the gaming industry is truly embracing the fact that there are twelve months in the year, not four. This small step towards progress is one of many that the industry will be making in the coming year and years. Each major platform has the opportunity to continue to expand the capabilities of what they can offer to an continually increasing audience. Whether it be hardware or software, there is plenty to anticipate as 2010 picks up steam into the fall release season. After all, E3 is only a couple months away.

Oh, and for the sake of the introduction to this post, here’s my big board: PS3, Apple, 360, PC, Wii.

This post is featured on Talking About Games.