On Flipping and Flopping

I understand it’s my responsibility to find a topic and pick a side. On the surface it seems simple enough. Occasionally my topic of choice might involve a dated story or a retread of a previously explored opinion. As much as I try to stay both current and fresh, some topics deserve a second round. If you’ve been paying attention to the Internet over the past few days then you are aware of a little event called CES going on in Las Vegas. The 2010 International Consumer Electronics Show is home to the latest and greatest electronics that consumers can expect to see on store shelves in the future. One of this year’s big themes was 3D. Yes, that 3D. I stand by my initial position that the market is not ready for 3D, but it appears that I am the only person against wearing glasses in my living room. For the sake of argument, and this post, I am willing to look past my initial instincts. Assuming that the market is ready for 3D, I have some bullet points for you to consider as this technology moves to advance our home theaters and, more specifically, our gaming habits in the future.

Now where did I put those stupid glasses?

As I said, I do not believe that now is the time for 3D, but considering the push that CES is showing in this direction I’m going to try to take a look at this objectively. Assume the premise, justify the conclusion, fill in the blanks.

One factor in favor of 3D in our technological future is uniformity. From what I can gather, there is only one final solution for bringing the third dimension to homes. Manufacturers might have different processes for building their televisions but they all generate the same picture, the same way. Much like the different plasma, LCD, and LED high-definition televisions available right now, one unit might have a different contrast ratio or more HDMI ports but both the method and the process are ultimately the same. Moving forward with that kind of uniformity applied to 3D, this technology is already off to a better start than the next generation disc movement.

Consider the great format war of 2008 between HD-DVD and Blu-ray. Consumers were too confused between the different format choices to actually cast a vote with their wallet. Factor in studios jockeying for position behind one format or the other and the industry was brought to a standstill. Unable to move forward behind a specific format until one was declared the “winner,” adoption delayed, support wavered, and consumer confusion continued to rise. We’ve seen how the initial lack of direction has impacted Blu-ray in the open market. Two years after the “war” and stand-alone Blu-ray players are just now becoming affordable, not a high-priced novelty. While some can argue that the PlayStation 3 is the best Blu-ray player available, the competition is catching up. Finally. All of these advancements are great, but they could have happened a lot sooner if we never had to deal with needless competition.

With only one solution to 3D, as awkward as it sounds, we can get behind the future. Companies can focus on making their products more cost effective to produce and more reasonably priced to consumers. Consumers already have an idea of how to buy a TV, simply changing the rules a little to incorporate 3D capabilities shouldn’t be too difficult. As usual the early adopters will lead the way and more and more consumers will catch on to the trends. While adoption of high-definition televisions hasn’t reached a sufficient market penetration for some, there’s enough of a trend to suggest that consumers will adopt 3D if properly motivated. I’m looking at you, Avatar.

All of that is great, but what about us, the gamers? This is where the mighty PlayStation 3 comes into play. 3D will be available to PlayStation owners through a mere firmware update. No new purchases, no additional hardware, no complicated procedures, no waiting in lines with the geek squad. The same process that brought us a cross media bar (eventually), Home (thank you), and maybe cross-game chat will bring us a system capable of 3D gaming. Just as every PlayStation 3 was a Blu-ray player out of the box to add statistical support to the bean counters, every gamer with a Sixaxis or Dual Shock 3 will get to experience the joy of wearing another accessory on their head to game in the third dimension.

It will take a “killer-app” to push 3D gaming as a viable product to consumers. We will not tolerate the video game equivalent of My Bloody Valentine or Spy Kids 3D as the proper entry into this new degree of games. It has to be a game with the impact of the first Halo. It has to be a game with the mass appeal of a Mario. It has to be something that everyone can point to and say, “See, 3D gaming is awesome and I’m glad I have it.” I don’t know what that will be; maybe Uncharted 3D, maybe Little Big Planet, maybe Gran Turismo. At the rate that game is delayed and the potential rate of adoption of 3D televisions, Gran Turismo 5 might be the perfect example of how to properly implement 3D into our gaming lives. Who knows, it could happen.

Last month I stated that I do not believe now is the time for 3D to make its way into our homes. I still believe that. Looking at the market penetration of HDTV; I still think there’s plenty of room for those televisions to grow in prevalence before we find the next big thing. However, CES has spoken: 3D is coming, fast. Assuming the technological Nostradamuses are correct and all of the tech demos on the CES floor were more than just a proof of concept, you will be asking Santa for a moderately priced upgrade to your home theater system. Just be sure to get glasses that sit comfortably on your nose; they are a real pain.

CES info can be found here, among other places – http://www.cesweb.org/default.asp

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