On Dimensions and Delusions

So I hear there’s a guy making this list and checking it twice. Little girls and boys will be asking the white-bearded one for all kinds of goodies. Hopefully they remember to leave milk and cookies out after his chimney descent. Hopefully little Tommy and Julie wont get coal in their stockings. The holidays are just around the corner so be sure to finalize your wish lists for Santa, he’s going to have a busy night. Me? I didn’t ask Santa for much, but I can assure you one thing – a 3D-capable television was not on my list. Nor will it be on any future Christmas lists. Quite frankly, all of this talk about 3D televisions, games and movies is a joke.

I know that explaining a joke takes the fun out of it, but I thought I’d expand upon that thought for a bit. Ready?

Why is this technology being pushed on us when only one third of homes have a high-definition television? Sure, market penetration continues to increase with each successive year, and according to the Nielson study responsible for that third, “it’s clear that despite the current economic climate, HD remains on course to become the benchmark in TV viewing.” That’s a particularly positive outlook on the situation considering a significant portion of these televisions aren’t even receiving an HD signal. According to a survey from Frank N. Magid Associates, “Despite that increase in HD programming, many viewers are still watching a lot of TV in standard definition. And surprisingly large numbers of viewers aren’t watching the HD programming available to them.”

I want to make sure I understand this: Only one third of American homes have an HD television. A third of that third don’t bother with HD programming, and yet companies have invested and continue to invest millions of dollars in a service that is being ignored by a noticeable population? With numbers like that, I find it very hard to believe that pushing 3D on consumers is recipe for success.

Consider the transition, if that’s the most appropriate word, from DVD to Blu-ray. You, reading this, are likely more informed than the average consumer and either have a Blu-ray player or are aware of the advantages of the Blu-ray technology. But that also means you are familiar with terms like 1080p, 120Hz, and HDMI, you know that MonoPrice.com is the only place to buy cables, you can explain the difference between a progressive and interlaced signal. I’m not so sure the average consumer knows the difference between 1080p and 1080i. I’m not sure if the average consumer has been convinced to adopt Blu-ray. While Blu-ray revenue has increased year-over-year, DVD revenue outpaces it by at least 5:1. I could bore you with graphs and numbers and weekly totals, or you could check them out here. My point is that if Blu-ray is still fighting for market penetration, how can these same consumers be expected to adopt a technology with a significantly greater niche market, 3D-capable televisions?

I understand that it is the nature of technology to evolve. We purchase computers with the knowledge that their power and value will be surpassed within six months unless you have the technical prowess to update hardware yourself. Along with evolving technology, prices are finally coming in line with what consumers can comfortably afford, even in These Troubled Times. But reduced prices and evolving technology for the current market standard do not give a green light for the next big thing, even if analysts are predicting 40 million homes with 3D televisions by 2014. 2014 is not that far away, and the notion that 3D will become the new standard in four short years is preposterous. I apologize for such extreme language, but considering the lengths this country still has to go to improve broadband access throughout the country, the third dimension should not be a priority.

With the adoption rate of HD televisions nowhere close to an overwhelming majority, I can’t see why these companies are promoting something that consumers aren’t asking for – except for greed. I hear no public cry for these monitors and yet Jerry Jones thought it brilliant to punish his fans with a failed 3D experiment during his team’s classic December collapse against the Chargers. And yet the Blu-ray Disc Association is preparing to flood CES with 3D Blu-ray compatible products. Why is the market being shifted in an unwanted direction, down an unnecessary path toward a finish line no one cares to recognize?

Right now 3D is a cheap trick. You say Avatar? I say My Bloody Valentine (in 3D). You say Toy Story 3, I say The Final Destination. You say Up, I say Spy Kids 3-D. I do not know if Avatar is a step toward legitimacy and acceptance of 3D in our movies (and video games). I am not sure if 3D will ever have a place in our homes. And I don’t know about you, but every time I hear a new movie will be shown in 3D, I roll my eyes. Surely some of you felt the same way when you heard that Saw 7 was going to be released 3D.

As the situation currently stands, I am not riding that bandwagon, and I do not plan on getting on board any time soon.

This post is also hosted at http://talkingaboutgames.com